Evaluation of Malthusian Theory
By
Chelsea Chaney
Emilyn Gjertsen
Miller Mrosek
John Niesen
Charlie Stalzer
Ever since the dawn of man, certain elements have driven humanity to action. In general, the most essential thing all humans need is food. However, the drive to reproduce between the sexes also motivates every human of every race and culture to do specific actions just as powerfully as hunger. Between 1798 and 1826, an Anglican clergyman and professor of history and political science named Thomas Malthus produced many pamphlets emphasizing that excessive population growth is inevitably checked by the power of the earth to produce substinence, wars, poverty and other vices. Today, his works have become known collectively as the Malthusian Theory. Malthus graduated from Cambridge University, and was a professor of history and political sciences. He wrote many papers and pamphlets on economic subjects, but his most recognized work is ‘The Principle of Population’
(British Broadcast Corporation Archives, 2009). Our essay will provide an overview and evaluation the core principles of his essentially pessimistic economic view.
Thomas Malthus first started his work on the modern Malthusian theory in 1798 (University of California Museum of Paleontology, 1995). What originally inspired him to write his theories was "the decline of living conditions in the nineteenth century England" (University of California Museum of Paleontolgy, 1995). He was officially a preist in the Anglican church, but today he is more known for being a political economist. However, one could easily mistake him for an aetheist by reading an overview of his theory, which is cynical in nature and seems to contradict biblical teachings. In reality, he was a very religious man. In fact, his theory states that the reason for poverty and famine was God's way to prevent man from becoming too lazy to farm. In addition, he recommended implementing moral birth control methods such as abstaining from sex after one child and other ways similar to that.
Malthus' works greatly contributed to the works of other theorists. For example, a quote from Charles Darwin's autobiography reads: "In October 1838, that is, fifteen months after I had begun my systematic inquiry, I happened to read for amusement Malthus on Population, and being well prepared to appreciate the struggle for existence which everywhere goes on from long- continued observation of the habits of plants and animals, it at once struck me that under these circumstances favourable variations would tend to be preserved, and unfavourable ones be destroyed. The results of this would be the formation of a new species. Here then I had at last got a theory at which to build on" (University of California Museum of Paleontology, 1995)). Also, his works helped formulate the ideas of Darwin's rival, Alfred Wallace, another evolutionary theorist. These are just some of many of Malthus' contributions to other great philosophers' works.
Core Principles of Thomas Malthus (International Society of Malthus, 2009)
1. Food is the singlemost nesscesity for humans.
2. Human population if not checked by disease or war tends to grow faster than the power to produce substidence.
3. The effects of the two unequal powers must remain equal.
4. Misery is the mechanism that balances human requirements and availible resources.
5.Nature's requirement that the imbalance between demand and supply be resolved in the forms the "strongest obstacle in the way of any very great improvement of society," and thus makes "the perfectability of man and society" a theoretical and practical impossibility(International Society of Malthus, 1997)
6. The Principle of Population, i.e.the inevitability of misery due to the power of population to overwhelm resources, provides the mainspring behind the advance of human civilization by creating incentives for progress (International Society of Malthus, 1997).
The population is severely divided on Malthus’ theory, as he has provided little evidence to support it and his figures he used to determine it (Yoshuf Dhmaee, 1995). However, his supporters feel that his main contribution was to pull the principles of his predecessors into one theory (International Society of Malthus, 1997). Malthus’s theory states that population will always be at least slightly larger than food and goods production, therefore resulting in unending cycles of peace and conflict (Encyclopedia Brittanica Online, 2009). Examples of this are found throughout history, and even in modern times. Rome, Ethiopia, the United States, and Europe all have classic examples of the Malthusian concept.
As stated earlier, the spark that ignited Thomas Malthus was his fear of declinig living conditions in the upcoming ninteenth century. It was from this proposition that Malthus wanted to save England from. In general, his theory attempted to explain the cause of and to prevent misery in the world. The most basic fundamental of his theory states that the population of any given area would increase at a geometric rate while the food supply would increase at an arithmetic rate, which would lead to widespread famine and poverty. Malthus theorized that there were two unquenchable thrists mankind would have for all eternity, the thrists for food and for sex. Aditionally, he that the maximum potential for reproduction of almost every organism that exists surpasses the ability of the Earth to sustain the population.
Malthus’ first theory stated that the only ways population could be balanced was by vice and misery. He called them the “two necessary evils.” They were brought about by war, famine, disease, etc. When he republished his work in 1803, he added moral restraint to vice and misery as the population balancers. By moral restraint, he meant, “a restraint from marriage, from prudential motives, with a conduct strictly moral”( Landry, 2001). Moral restraint was only mentioned in his later writings, in which he stressed it significantly.
The conclusion to Malthus’ works is that he believed there is nothing we could truly do to help prevent the downfalls (such as wars, famines, droughts, etc.) from happening to us. Seeing as his occupation was a minister, he went so far as to say that these were divine punishment, designed to prevent mankind from becoming too lazy (University of California Museum of Paleontology, 1995). Additionally, he said that any laws trying to prevent misery and rid society of its problems were likely to bring about the very evils they are designed to prevent. So, in the end, he believed all we could do was have faith in the forces of nature that have gotten us this far to keep us headed in the right direction.
Malthus’ theory can be proven correct by the current and recent condition of the country of Ethiopia. An astounding 85 percent of the labor force in Ethiopia is engaged in the agriculture industry and 51 percent of Ethiopia’s arable land is under cultivation(Ethiopian Review, 2009). Yet, according to the U.N. World Food Program 8 million or more of the people in Ethiopia are suffering from chronic food shortages(Ethiopian Review, 2009) Additionally, the World Health Organization says that most of Ethiopia’s diseases are caused by malnutrition(Ofcansky and Berry, 1991). A medical practice that is common in Ethiopia is female genital mutilation(Pankhurst, 1965). Since 1965 close to four out of five women underwent this procedure. Though crude, it is a form of contraceptive, which should lower the population in Ethiopia. But even with that, the population density of Ethiopia is 173 people per square mile, that’s twice that of the United States (Infoplease Almanac, 2009). even though Ethiopia is very committed to producing sustenance for its people, and there is a form of birth control, the population still exceeds the food output, which in turn results in poverty and malnutrition. This poverty and malnutrition caused by the excessive population will only serve to lower the present population in decades to come. And since Ethiopia is one of the oldest countries in the world, its ancestry dating back to the first century BC, this country stricken with poverty could very well be a map of things to come, if the theories and prophesies of Thomas Malthus are not heeded (Pankhurst, 2003).
Another example of how Malthusian theory is correct is the outbreak of the black death. Because of the Pax Tatarica, a period when the Mongols controlled most of Eurasia but did not advance and kill further into Europe, Europe was in a time of relative peace (Waugh, 2000). During this time, there was not enough food for every one of the serfs under the system of feudalism, which, with other factors such as emigration to the cities, resulted in a general state of uncleanliness. As stated earlier, the population kept rising throughout Western Europe. But in 1348, disaster struck as the black plague swept through southern Europe. Mortality rates went as high as seventy percenty (Cartwright, 1991). By the end of the century, at least a third of Europe's population vanished to the ravages of the destructive disease, again proving Malthusian theory. Because of these and other examples found throughout history and modern times, one could easily come into agreement with the foundations of Malthusian theory.
An additional example supporting Malthusian theory is the fall of Rome. The Pax Romana, a time of uncompared peace and prosperity in the Roman Empire, started in the year 27 BC and lasted until 180 AD. At no other point in ancient history was there such a time of relative peace, During this time there was no extraordinary decline in population or cataclysmic events. Therefore the population continued to grow without limitations. The food supply simply could not keep up with the quickly expanding population. According to Malthus there had to be a “necessary evil.” This evil was the attacks on Rome by the tribes of Northern Europe, which put the population in check. These attacks resulted in the falling of Rome to the Visigoths in 410 AD. This cycle of peace to conflict affirms Malthus' theory.
A fourth example affirming Malthuian theory would include the modern states of western Europe and the United states. Throughout the cold war era, a green revolution took place in which many agricultural advancements occured. Because of this green revolution, subsidence in these devolped countries has increased, resulting in more room for population growth. However, increase in food alone is not enough to sustain population growth, according to the theory. Advances in reproductive technology like birth control and abortion have kept the populations in check, while still allowing the inhabitants to have sex. Since 1973, Americans have aborted over 50,300,000 babies (Christian Patriots for Life, 1998). In Europe, the estimated number of abortions are likely much higher, resulting in unchanging or even negative population growth. These figures do not even include the number of babies likely to have been concieved without other birth control methods, such as "the pill." Although Thomas Malthus included birth control as a feasible alternative to Malthusian catastrophe, he would disagree in the methods used today, as he only said "moral" control methods such as abstaining from sex or agreeing to have only one child should be used (Helicon Publishing, 2009). Even though there is no catastrophe such as famine, pandemic, or war occuring in the western world right now, it still exhibits the principles of Malthusian theory.
Because of these examples, one might come to conclude Malthusian theory is inevitably correct. Historical examples such as the decline of Rome and Central African poverty conclude that every principle of Thomas Malthus is right. However, both technology and incentives not to create food both hinder the main principles behind Malthusian theory. Obviously, agricultural technology has improved since Malthus' time. However, even he could not have anticipated the impact of such modern technology on society. For example, mules and horses would have been common farming tools for cultivating land and harvesting in the time of Malthus. But in 1915, the tractor was invented, drastically reducing the amount of time it took a farmer to tend to his field (Bellis, 200). By 1950, for the first time in history, the number of tractors on farms worldwide outnumbered the number of mules and horses. This implicates that the farmer would have more time to plant more fields and innovate his equipment further. However, agricultural technology was not the only branch of technology that contributes to sustaining or preventing population growth. In 1973, abortion, or the destroying of fetuses and babies in the mother's womb to prevent unwanted parenthood was legalized in America (Hoosear,2009). Malthus never dreamed that such technologies such as abortion and birth control pills could be used to control population by so many people. These and other advances in technology can be said to be proof that the theory will never take effect because of constant human innovations.
Skeptics of the theory could also say that we actually can produce enough food for the entire world. Their main point is that it is not being distributed properly. Also, the total capacity of farms in the world is not utilized because of government incentives, called subsidies. A subsidy is a government policy that gives money to a person or company to assist an enterprise that is considered advantageus to the public (Merriam Webster Online Dictionary, 2009) The main subsidy granted to farmers by the American government is for the farmer to produce less food to keep prices low in return for money (Wise, 2005). The United States government gives these subsidies for good causes such as to keep foods from being overproduced or keeping the world market fair for all, but in the end the food that is not being produced only serves to make more people hungry. Thus starts the effects of malnutrition and poverty in third world countries, since we did not produce surplus food for their people. Advances in technology and the inabilty of industrialized nations to distribute food to poorer countries are some of the ways that Malthusian theory's main points can be thwarted by those who disagree with the Theory.
One of the most troubling parts of Malthus’s theory is the math he incorporated to support it. According to Encyclopedia Britannica,he never did adequately set out his premises or examine their logical status (Encyclopedia Brittanica Online, 2009). Nor did he handle his factual and statistical materials with much critical or statistical rigor, even though statisticians in Europe and Great Britain had developed increasingly sophisticated techniques during Malthus’s lifetime (Encyclopedia Brittanica Online, 2009).
Malthus also failed to foresee the revolution to come. Since the release of ‘The Principle of Population’ in 1798, there have been multiple inovations to assist in the speed of production and the control of population, such as Eli Whitney’s cotton gin, the assembly line, and birth control. However, inventions will always be part of mankind's constant search for an easier life. Also, one could argue that although humans have instinctual needs like food and sex, they can also learn to master their desires. Asceticists practice this on a regular basis through their constant self-denial. Though Malthus was a esteemed economist in his day, and respected by people today, it seems that his theory is outdated and irrelevant to the modern time.
The Malthusian Theory could mean catastrophe if it is proven correct, and it's arguable that it already has been. Because the world population now sits at about six billion, there is more than a good chance that if the Malthusian Theory took effect today, and resources became scarce, a global crisis would be at hand. The question is, are we ready?
Were Malthus to be correct, the world's entire population would be in danger. Every living thing depends on everyone. Six billion is alot of people to susutain on one planet, and with changing climate patterns
, who's to say that the next famine won't occur in three months, because of an extreme drought? Nations have stock piles of goods and products on hand at all times, ready for situations such as these. In times of desperation, they could become adequate reason for war. And war in this day and age has entirely different implications that it did even just 20 years ago. Everyone's life would be at stake.
All of that sounds like a effective doomsday prophecy, to say the least, but what if Malthus was incorrect?
The biggest thing humans have got going for them is their ingenuity. Humans have large enough brains to work their way through almost any challenge. It is the 'human element' Malthus seems to have overlooked. Mankind has already found ways to circumvent population explosion and increase prodiction of resources. Therefore, Malthu's theory has very little to do with the future of Earth's population. Humans can sustain their exsistence no matter what is to come,icy flood or raging fire, because of our adaptability to any situation, even a crisis.
In all, Malthusian Theory has been accurate and inaccurate. Today, third-world countries not influenced by the Industrial Revolution still reflect Malthusian theory. They have reached a point where there is a higher demand for food than there is actual amount of food, which results in famine. This results in malnutrition and food shortages. On the other hand, Industrial economies are not following the blueprint of the Malthusian Theory. Those economies have many ways to grow, harvest, and produce food for their booming communities. They have medicines for those who are sick, and vaccines to prevent citizens from getting a certain types of illnesses. They have means of storing food for longer periods of time and have prevented the downfall of their economies by the use of technology unforseen by Malthus. Though in the end the Malthusian Theory stands correct if it were not affected by technological means, it is becoming less relevant because of the way our societies grow today.
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